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Discontinuity requires Innovation

Horse of a different color

Tools of the Futurist

The Fool

The Futurist's Tools

Content Analysis was invented by the intelligence community to study Germany during W.W.II.  Today, it is harder... the multimedia thing... but it is just as effective.  We have recently conducted content analysis on subjects like humor and the role of sports in our lives.  It takes more time today than it did 50 years ago, but it is worth the effort.

Ethnographics is the study of icons and their transference across groups of people.  If bipedalness was the greatest moment in humanity... the fact that we "collect things" is the second greatest.  Our ancestors didn't just keep rocks around to smack their neighbors, and therefore steal their food... it always had to be a pretty rock!!

FirstMatter knows about Motives.  Our Values and Lifestyles program catalogues three meta-motives.  A decision is driven by (1) principle, (2) status quests or (3) the need for action.  Looking at the world for these cues is extremely revealing and very helpful to assessing people's future directions.

Observational Research is not done well in America, but it is done really well in other places.  Japanese car manufacturers never asked anybody if they wanted a cup holder in their car.  They simply observed people looking for a place to put their cup!!  They didn't ask one question.  One has to get out of one's own views.  This tool helps you do that.

Scenario Planning is the study of "givens" to the future and the critical uncertainties against those givens.  It is a given that we will have 6 billion people in less than 10 years.  When we reach that level of population, 1/3 of the world will be teenagers... this, too, is a given.  What is uncertain is... will teens be the same? will they be treated the same?

Trends work because psychographic research works.  People consistently overstate, but they overstate with consistency...  so we can evaluate people's dreams, goals and aspirations, fears, anxieties and concerns.  And, then we can see what directions they are headed by tracking those social trends.

FirstMatter: Bringing the Future to Your Business
Updated 8.18.2006
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